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Oscar Predictions – We Have A Horse Race

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For the first time in many a blue moon, the eventual Best Picture winner hasn’t already been decided as in years past, but it’s beginning to feel as if a certain silent movie will take home the big enchilada. Frankly there were no films to feel passionate about in 2011 - no one taking sides, no one predicting months ago. And most of the presumed BP nominees were released in the spring and summer. The only things left to decide now are what will be the big surprises and the all important snubs. On Saturday, the Producers Guild announced THE ARTIST as their choice for Best Picture. The Directors Guild and the Screen Actors Guild announce next weekend.

Below is a look at our Oscar predictions in the big categories to be announced Tuesday morning. With the rule changes again in Best Picture, we’ve decided on 7 films. Rules: “The pictures receiving the highest number of votes shall become the nominations for final voting for the Best Picture award. There may not be more than ten nor fewer than five nominations; however, no picture shall be nominated that receives less than five percent of the total votes cast.” Don’t be surprised if AMPAS President Tom Sherak and Actress Jennifer Lawrence only announce 5. (We can always hope.)

Some of us are sticking to our guns that a film should not be eligible for both Best Picture and Best Animated Feature, therefore, dismissing all this baloney about HUGO being nominated for Best Picture, placing it strictly within the Animated category. Best Director, however, is still fair game!

And let us know what you think in our comments section. Where did we go wrong? What did you like seeing on our list?

PREDICTIONS:

BEST PICTURE

HUGO

THE DESCENDANTS

THE ARTIST

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO

THE HELP

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

MONEYBALL

Watch out for – WAR HORSE, BRIDESMAIDS, HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2, DRIVE, and TREE OF LIFE

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Woody Allen, MIDNIGHT INPARIS
2. David Fincher, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
3. Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST
4. Alexander Payne, THE DESCENDANTS
5. Martin Scorsese, HUGO

Watch out for – Steven Spielberg, WAR HORSE, Tate Taylor, THE HELP, Terrence Malick, THE TREE OF LIFE, Nicolas Winding Refn, DRIVE

BEST ACTOR
1. George Clooney, THE DESCENDANTS
2. Jean Dujardin, THE ARTIST
3. Michael Fassbender, SHAME
4. Gary Oldman, TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
5. Brad Pitt, MONEYBALL

Watch out for – Demián Bichir, A BETTER LIFE, Leonardo DiCaprio, J. EDGAR, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50, Michael Shannon, TAKE SHELTER

BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close, ALBERT NOBBS
2. Viola Davis, THE HELP
3. Meryl Streep, THE IRON LADY
4. Tilda Swinton, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN
5. Michelle Williams, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

Watch out for – Kirsten Dunst, MELANCHOLIA; Rooney Mara, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO; Charlize Theron, YOUNG ADULT

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Kenneth Branagh, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
2. Albert Brooks, DRIVE
3. Jonah Hill, MONEYBALL
4. Nick Nolte, WARRIOR
5. Christopher Plummer, BEGINNERS

Watch out for – Max Von Sydow, EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, Armie Hammer, J EDGAR, Jim Broadbent, THE IRON LADY, in our “anything is possible” dreams – Andy Serkis, RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Bérénice Bejo, THE ARTIST
2. Jessica Chastain, THE HELP
3. Melissa McCarthy, BRIDESMAIDS
4. Janet McTeer, ALBERT NOBBS
5. Octavia Spencer, THE HELP

Watch out for – Shailene Woodley, THE DESCENDANTS, Carey Mulligan, SHAME or DRIVE, Judi Dench, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Woody Allen, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
2. Michel Hazanivicius, THE ARTIST
3. Tom McCarthy, WIN WIN
4. Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig, BRIDESMAIDS
5. Will Reiser, 50/50

Watch out for – Mike Mills, BEGINNERS; Diablo Cody, YOUNG ADULT

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, THE DESCENDANTS
2. Tate Taylor, THE HELP
3. John Logan, HUGO
4, Aaron Sorkin & Steven Zaillian, MONEYBALL
5. Peter Straughan & Bridget O’Connor, TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

Watch out for – Richard Curtis & Lee Hall, WAR HORSE, Steven Zaillian, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO

ANIMATED FEATURE

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
KUNG FU PANDA 2
RANGO
PUSS IN BOOTS
HUGO

Watch out for – RIO, CARS 2

10 Comments

  1. Pingback: Oscar Predictions – We Have A Horse Race – We Are Movie Geeks | e-Horses.Biz

  2. Davey Peppers

    January 22, 2012 at 8:46 pm

    Um…Hugo isn’t an animated film…

  3. Rachel H

    January 22, 2012 at 9:17 pm

    I’m glad I wasn’t the only one wondering about the Hugo comment…could Tintin have been intended?

  4. Helen

    January 23, 2012 at 12:04 am

    I really hope that Charlize Theron gets nomimation for her role in Young Adult. She was wonderful (imo much better than Michelle Williams).

    • Drew Marberry

      January 23, 2012 at 3:29 pm

      Ya Charlize was great in Young Adult. I would want her to replace Tilda Swinton though. I liked Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn!

  5. Christopherrrr

    January 23, 2012 at 4:12 am

    Sorry sir but except that you like it,WHAT would make you believe that The girl with the dragon tattoo has even a small chance at Best picture.Ronney Mara has a Globe nom and NBR breakthrough performer of the year,the score is nominated by the globe,Washington and a few more.Only BAFTA has given it some noms,that

  6. Drew Marberry

    January 23, 2012 at 3:36 pm

    Most of these are what is to be expected! I think this is how it should be but I want to make a few changes.

    Best Supporting Actor= Max Von Syndrow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close) and Alan Rickman (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2) These two should be nominated in the best supporting actor category replacing Jonah Hill and Nick Notle.

    Best Supporting Actress= Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close) But her in and replace Melissa McCarthy ( Bridesmaids) She was funny in Bridesmaids but not worthy of an Oscar nomination.

    Other then this all the other categories here are good!

  7. Ana87

    January 29, 2012 at 4:13 pm

    I wish this year the Oscar goes to The Artist (of course I’m referring to Meryl Streep).

  8. cheltenham festival

    March 1, 2012 at 8:18 pm

    The Oscar nominations are soon, so I was just wondering about your predictions. Here are mine:

    Best Picture:
    Moneyball
    Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
    War Horse
    Harry Potter
    The Artist
    Drive
    The Guard
    The Descendants
    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
    Hugo

    Animation:
    Arthur Christmas
    Rango
    Tintin

  9. Lorenza Gruber

    April 14, 2012 at 2:18 am

    Other then this all the other categories here are good!

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